The Week In: Box Office Speculation, Recap & Henceforth...
I follow film box office stats much the same way that most people follow political elections: with mouth agape.
In speculating about how a film will do over its opening weekend, it is hard not to overestimate one's own demographic (haven't my friends been talking a lot about Werner Herzog lately? Must mean mega-hit!). But the act of such speculation, while seemingly futile and certainly geeky, is a way of engaging with people one normally doesn't have a chance to engage with, and whose ticket-purchasing is really a kind of "voting."
Of course, box office means less now than ever before. Whereas once a film's box office could be indicative of how much people liked it - see "Jaws," which in 1975 was truly the "movie of the summer" as people returned to it over and over again and its box office remained steadfast over a period of months - now it is up to marketing strategists to deceive a huge audience into seeing a film in its opening weekend so that it can earn back its investments before anyone can decide if it's actually any good. (Hence, a movie like "Godzilla" can be universally despised and still gross $375 million.)
Nevertheless, to care and speculate about box office is to presuppose the possibility that assessing popular opinion is worthwhile and possible, however difficult. I am neither qualified to do this, nor particularly good at it. But here's to the possibility of consensus...
Here are last week's predictions and results. New predix will be posted on Friday. I invite you to weigh in and openly mock me.
THIS LAST WEEKEND
Predix:
1. Gridiron Gang - $15mil
2. Black Dahlia - $13mil
3. Everyone's Hero - $9mil
4. Last Kiss - $7mil
5. Covenant - $4.2mil
6. Hollywoodland - $4mil
7. Illusionist - $3.5mil
8. Protector - $3.5mil
9. Little MS - $3mil
10. Invincible - $2.5mil
1. Gridiron Gang - $15mil
2. Black Dahlia - $10.4mil
3. Everyone's Hero - $6.2mil
4. Last Kiss - $4.7mil
5. Covenant - $4.7mil
6. Invincible - $3.9mil
7. Illusionist - $3.8mil
8. Little MS - $3.4mil
9. Hollywoodland - $2.7mil
10. Crank - $2.7mil