Live-blogging the Really Big Huge Gigantic Non-Decisive Election Thing. Err...Change!
About a billion (literally) states will hold primary or caucus-like things tomorrow. We'll be there.
Our endorsement?
What? That's not Obama? He really should grow a mustache.
We'll support him anyway. I guess. But if he grows that mustache, we'll be a little more excited about it.
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10:45 a.m. EST: Bill Clinton has made his predictions. Bill left out about half the states; and included Idaho twice. And where the fuck is Samoa? And the motherfucking Democrats Abroad? -B
10:50 a.m. EST: Update on those wily Democrats Abroad. Obama is clearly rounding up the ol' gang from Jakarta madrassa class of '70 for some help in winning this key (KEY) contest; 75% of the 100 ex-pat votes cast just after midnight gave Barry first blood. -B
11:11 a.m. EST: Everyone is going to win everything.
"California
SurveyUSA: Clinton 52%, Obama 42%
Zogby: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%
Missouri
SurveyUSA: Clinton 54%, Obama 43%
Zogby: Obama 45%, Clinton 42%"
-B
11:55 a.m. EST: Apparently, the McLaughlin group took a time-out from yelling about nothing and everything all at once to suggest alternate names for Super Tuesday. Our favorite:
Stupor Tuesday: Everyone gets totally loaded on Bloody Marys at breakfast then goes out and spends all day voting for crazy stuff “just ‘cuz it’d be hilarious.” -B
12:07 p.m. EST: The New York Times op-ed page rundown from the last few days:
Paul Krugman: "Obama sucks because he wants everyone to get sick and die because they don't have health care."
Stanley Fish: "Everyone hates Hillary because they're not as smart as I am. But it's OK, because I'm really fucking smart."
David Brooks: "Go fuck yourself Krugman. Hillary's plan isn't the fucking magna carta or some other important document or whatever. And she's a heinous bitch."
Maureen Dowd: "Obama tried to touch her; Hillary didn't want to be touched: Was she leading him on, or was he pursuing too hard? Election 2008: you decide."
Frank Rich: "Obama may be JFK, but he's also JFK. And since he's not JFK, or perhaps because he's not, you have to take a 'leap of faith' to support him. [Obligatory comment about lobbyists.] [Obligatory comment about Republicans.]"
Bob Herbert: "Hi friends :). There's an election going on. It's between one friend called the Realist, and another friend called the Dreamer. Isn't that special? Yeah. :)" -B
12:34 p.m. EST
After this shocking endorsement from the Governor of Guam, Felix Camacho, McCain can sit back and let the crucial South Pacific American Territorial votes come in without having to make the 22 hour flight out there to stump.
Also, it seems like Romney made fun of Bob Dole, in what we can only assume was poking fun at his chronic ED (since we don't want to waste time reading about this nonsense), causing a flame war of press released from both Romney and McCain's camp. -D
12:56 p.m. EST:
More rundown of more NYTimes op-eds
Bill Kristol: Liberals are more annoying now that they are angry hippies than they were when they were happy, drugged hippies of the 60s. Buckley: a god. Reagan: a god. McCain: that guy's ok, i guess.
While Errol Morris continues to take a sabbatical after basically only writing one, long article. -D
1:11 p.m. EST:
It's happening...
"A source with Obama's New York campaign claims there are problems with voting in parts of Brooklyn.
"There are a substantial amount of problems in a limited location," the source says, citing at at least eight polling locations that are having problems, concentrated in Bed Stuy, Fort Greene, East New York and East Flatbush.
These are also the areas where Obama's support in New York is strongest. " -N
1:14 p.m. EST:
Hipsters in Williamsburg simply can't get their voting acts together. -N
1:25 p.m. EST:
BREAKING
Ted Nugent, he who once said "We should Nagasaki [Iraq]" has turned out in favour of conservative Mike Huckabee -D
1:45 p.m. EST:
From the Who Gives a Fuck? Department
Is the gossip blogosphere breaking for Hillary?
1:51 p.m. EST:Romney Huckabee takes the fucktarded West Virginia primary.
2:43 p.m. EST: McCain giveth votes to Huckabee, taketh away West Virginia.
2:51 p.m. EST:
Primaries make no sense. I challenge you to understand this:
Let's take a look at Tennessee to illustrate this strange reality. Tennessee has 9 congressional districts, that attribute 44 of the state's pledged delegates. Most polls have Clinton up big in this state (about 20%), one of her safest strongholds. But a district-by-district look reveals that Clinton has got to be worried.
* The 9th district which is 59.7% black (which means an even higher proportion of Democratic primary voters). It is also a 6 delegate district, and Obama should be able to break the 59% he needs for a 4-2 split.
* The first, second and third districts all allocate four delegates. And while Clinton is likely to win big in all of them, she needs to break 62.5%. That will obviously be very hard for her to accomplish, especially given that Obama can count on a minimal black base in all those places, so that she could be forced to come out of these 3 districts with a 6-6 split.
* The 5th district is 23% black and has 6 delegates. Obama is likely to win there, and he could be forced to split the delegates. But he is more likely to break 59% than Clinton is to break 62% in the first 3 districts.
* That leaves Clinton with the 4th, 6th, 7th districts to get any sort of delegate lead. All of these have 5 delegates, which makes it near impossible for her to win by a big enough landslide to get a 4-1 edge (once again, the black vote should provide Obama with a strong base). In other words, these three districts combined could give Clinton a 3 delegate lead -- one each.
* Finally, the 8th district looks to be more disputed between the candidates. It is a 5 delegate district, so that the winner will get an extra delegate even if he only wins by a vote.
* The bottom line: Obama could lose the state by 15% or more but tie Clinton on the district delegate count. By opening up a 2 delegate margin in the 9th and perhaps the 5th district while forcing Clinton to split the delegates in her own strongholds (the first 3 districts), Obama would at worst trail Clinton by 1-2 delegates, at best lead her by as much. And all of this while losing the popular vote by 15%. -B
3:13 p.m. EST
Remember that scene in Chasing Amy?
-B
3:37 p.m. EST
Jack robo-calls for Hillary, threatens to kill you with an axe if you don't vote for her:
-B
5:05 p.m. EST
The Clinton camp pre-spins tonight's results like a Whirling Dervish. -A
He then went on to MEGA-spin outcomes in Massachusetts and California. According to Wolfson, Massachusetts right now is "tight as a tick," and since Sen. Kennedy has what he called a "machine" -- without mentioning the Boston mayor's machine working overtime for Clinton -- Wolfson said if Obama doesn't win Massachusetts it will be a "disappointment." In fact, Clinton has held a double-digit lead in most Massachusetts polls up until now.
Similarly, he tried to suggest that if Obama doesn't win California it will be a "disappointment" because of the Maria Shriver/Oprah endorsements and campaign events -- even though polls have shown Clinton with a solid lead in the state until now.
5:18 p.m. EST
Sluttiest Endorsement Ever? NYC's most famous strip club Scores endorses pretty much everybody but Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. -A
5:45 pm EST
Just got back from voting here in the aforementioned Wburg. Polling place was in the common area of a public housing complex on Division st. Just a couple of thoughts:
- Hassids vote!
- Using a New York voting machine feels like taking a trip back to the golden years of the Industrial age. Why are they so large?
- There are Republicans living in Williamsburg! He was an older gentleman in a Plaxico Burress jersey.
-Mahoney
6:02 pm EST
MSNBC just kicked off their coverage w/ a hugely triumphant, March-Madness/NBA-on-NBC-type opening montage. Matthews! Olberman! Scarborough! Carlson! (on the scene at McCain HQ, can't wait for those reports)! That Air America bull-dyke that Scarborough loves to argue with!
I'm sitting here on the couch and I'm inspired. The only thing missing was a Tesh-penned themesong. -Mahoney
6:11 pm EST
To counter CNN's Election Center wall-o-touchscreen TVs, MSNBC has busted out some sort of gleaming, hovering pane of glass on which graphics are beamed. The whole thing may be fake, it's hard to tell. We'll see if Scarborough touches it. -Mahoney
7:04 pm EST
Congratulations, Georgia, you're the first one to call. Everyone in the official 'drome pool had BO taking it - no surprises there. Exit polls show 52% of the dem turnout was black. 86% of that 52% went w/ B. 43% of whiteys, too -M
7:09 pm EST
MSNBC's floating information screen - confirmed fake! That didn't take long. CNN, meanwhile, is still rocking their big touch-panel flatscreens. Dude can't talk and do the iPhone pinch and squeeze at the same time. -M
7:47 pm EST
Resemblance, both in timbre of voice and plaintive dopiness of stare, is pretty striking mwang points out.
7:58 pm EST
Just to clear it up for the rest of the night and the annoying amount of times you'll hear it
bell·weth·er (běl'wěth'ər)
n. One that serves as a leader or as a leading indicator of future trends
though the definition of hein might be more important. -D
8:04 p.m. EST
McCain takes CT and IL. Romney takes MA.
Obama takes IL, Clinton takes OK. Nothing too exciting... yet.
Meanwhile, here's TNR's Jonathon Cohn finding the comfy and significantly more rational middle ground that David Brooks & Paul Krugman have failed to grasp: See part 1 and part 2.
New Jersey for McCain.... and Huckabee has taken the lead in Georgia. Mitt Romney wants to strangle him, I'm sure. -B
8:08 pm EST
Tucker Carlson at the McCain HQ is wearing a real tie!
The implications of this move will be analyzed for the rest of the night.
8:12 p.m. EST
Drudge: "OBAMA LARGE IN SOME EXITS; ROMNEY SHOWS PULSE"
Here's his ridiculously early and far off results. -B
OBAMA: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...
CLINTON: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47... New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41...
8:17 p.m.
Tennessee 47% to 44% for Clinton right now with a massive ~1.37% reporting - closer than expected. Cosmodrome HQ has a blood interest in this one (for Barry O., that is).
I feel like the West Wing characters when Rob Lowe was running for Congress as a Democrat in Orange County while President Martin Sheen was in a tight race.
Or something like that. -B
8:19 p.m. EST
The Clinton camp is already calling a "strong victory" in Tennessee even though none of the cable news channels are willing to even call it. We're waiting to see what effect the 'Cosmodrome Bump' will have in TN from a staffer's sibling.
Yikes. Karl Rove's already punditing on FoxNews. -D
8:24 p.m. EST
Following up on Alex's "sleaziest" endorsement, here's a bunch of pornstars explaining Super Tuesday. -B
8:30 p.m. EST
CNN has some crazy dramatic music prior to announcing that they're calling a state - and then Wolf Blitzer takes the cue and says "No big surprise here." Where's your sense of showmanship, Wolf? How about a "Woooo Pig Sooooeeyyy!!!!" Or at least some sense of drama? That music is being let down. [Arkansas for Hillary and Huck.] -B
Damn. CNN just called Hillary in Tennessee too. -B
8:54 p.m. EST
MSNBC is now interviewing Bill Richardson who, now that he's out of the race, is able to show his support for the writers by growing a strike beard. -D
8:59 p.m. EST
More on Tennessee: CNN reports tornadoes in Memphis hitting Obama hard; 40% of the voters there were white women. As Undercover Brother noted, they're the black man's kryptonite!
CNN just gave NY to Clinton. -B
9:09 p.m. EST
AP projects Clinton winning Massachusetts in the first surprise of the night. MA was a state where Obama had Kennedy, Kerry, & Deval Patrick stooging for him. -B
9:13 p.m. EST
MSNBC has trained all their pundits to use the correct pronunciation of "Missour-ah" -D
9:15 pm EST
Delegate count - 93/43 Hil/Barry. MSNBC's black male gumshoe at Clinton HQ says everyone there is feeling "pretty good"
Currently I have the most pie on my face in the 'drom D pool. Stunning, I know, after my Iowa cleanup.
OMG Matthews to Carlson: "I love the way you just said Romney's rich. I love that" Mmmm. -M
9:29 EST
NYTimes.com leads with a pretty great photo of McCain trust falling his way to victory outside of Rockefeller Center today. -M/ChA
9:45 EST
Oh right, Mike Gravel.
Somehow CNN remembered to keep him on the list of viable candidates, though it's unclear if Mike Gravel remembers. -D
10:04 p.m. EST
Romney takes Utah! Obama takes North Dakota!
Interesting to see the divide in coverage. CNN is coloring this night as a huge victory for Clinton so far; while MSNBC seems to call it a draw. In no small part this reflects on Wolf Blitzer and Chris Matthews' clear preferences for Clinton and Obama, respectively.
Either way, doesn't look good for our Jakarta's choice. California, Missouri, Connecticut, Arizona and others still remain, so there's a way's to go. -B
10:08 p.m. EST
Everyone hates Mitt. Huckabee: "Before tonight, they said this was a two-person race... and it is! And we're in it!" -B
10:27 p.m. EST
Another Romney zinger from Huckabee: "Yesterday he was against whining; today's he's for it." Make up your mind, Mitt! -B
Meanwhile, some good news on Obama side - Minnesota, Utah, North Dakota, Kansas, and Connecticut break his way.
Blitzer, with his usual eloquence, on Obama's win in MN: "This was a state he wanted to win, and he did win." Obviously, Obama intended to lose in NY, NJ, etc! The plan is being executed to perfection. -B
10:33 p.m. EST
Is it really necessary to have big foam baseball mitt as the symbol for Mitt Romney? Who thought it was a good idea? Who are the ad wizards that came up with that?
He's currently giving his veiled concession speech. all i can hear is: "ERROR! ERROR!" -D
10:40 pm EST
"NEW PRODUCTS! NEW DESIGNS! THEY HAVEN'T!"
I'm making the Technologic remix tomorrow of Mitt's They Haven't/Dayenu/Retaking the Staples Boardroom speech. -ChA/M
10:49 pm EST
Peggy Noonan is hottt.
10:52 pm EST
Hillary Clinton: Big Shout Out to American Samoa! I wonder if she'll still give me things once she's President even though I didn't vote for her.
10:58 pm EST
Countdown to West Coast Polls Closing... And, oh shit, she is dragging her speech out til the 11 o'clock break.
11:01 pm EST
Her speech is done.
Super Tuesday. Tornadoes in Tennessee. Giants Ticker Tape Parade. And the Maharishi Yogi dies. How did the News Media deserve such a day? And will Obama mention the Maharishi in his speech?
11:43 pm EST
Wikipedia's main page article today is for Ronald Reagan. Bias?
Missour-ah is too close to call yet! -D
11:44 pm EST
Obama and McCain speeches overlap! Toes stepped on! -D
12:13 pm EST
NBC calls California for Hillary. That means the winner of the 'Drome pool tonight is MWang. Bastard.
Ruh Roh. Now NBC is calling Romney's safeguard of California for McCain. We'll miss your red, mechanical eyes judging us with your cold, calculating terminator vision. -D